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Future Atmospheric Rivers Could Cause Devastating Ocean Level Rise off West Coast, Simulation Suggests

Simulation showing future ocean level rise along California coast due to atmospheric rivers.

A climate research team from NSF NCAR, Texas A&M, and Penn State has found that future atmospheric rivers forming in the Pacific could drive significant ocean level increases along North America's shores.

Exploring Past Atmospheric Rivers

In their study published in Communications Earth & Environment, the team explores past atmospheric rivers and applies this knowledge to future ARs, factoring in global warming.

The Impact of Climate Change

In the coming century, the global climate is set to undergo significant changes, including rising temperatures and varying precipitation patterns. However, less attention has been given to the ongoing shifts in ocean conditions, where both air and water temperatures are increasing.

Impact of Carbon Dioxide on Oceans

The carbon dioxide contributing to global warming is also acidifying the oceans, while melting polar ice continues to drive rising sea levels. These changes are expected to significantly affect atmospheric rivers (ARs), with most models predicting increased frequency, heavier rainfall, and stronger winds.

Ocean Level Rise: A Consequence of Atmospheric Rivers

In their new study, the research team highlights another, less-explored consequence of atmospheric rivers: ocean level rise along coastlines where they make landfall, resembling storm surges caused by hurricanes.

Modeling Future Ocean Level Rise

To estimate potential ocean level rise in North America, the team developed models based on data from previous atmospheric rivers that impacted California, Oregon and Washington, incorporating climate change projections to predict future ocean level increases.

Key Findings: Up to 200% Rise in Sea Levels

By incorporating recent atmospheric river (AR) data into their model and running simulations that adjust for predicted air and water temperature changes, the researchers found that future ARs could cause sea levels to rise by up to 200% compared to past levels—a scenario that could be catastrophic for coastal communities in California, especially given the heavy rainfall ARs bring.

Regional Variations in Ocean Level Rise

The simulations also indicated that different regions of California will experience varying levels of ocean rise—southern areas, such as Los Angeles, are expected to see more frequent and intense ARs, with heavier rainfall and stronger winds than in the past, leading to higher ocean levels compared to northern parts of the state.

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