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nitrate levels in oceans under climate change

Climate Change is Disrupting Marine Nutrient Cycles, Scientists Warn

Study Reveals Human-Driven Climate Change Will Impact Ocean Nutrient Cycles

A graphical depiction of the decreasing phosphate-to-nitrate ratio in ocean waters observed over the past five decades. Credit: Michelle Aung / UC Irvine.

In a recent study, computer models have shown that human-driven climate change will profoundly disrupt critical ocean nutrient cycles. Researchers from the University of California, Irvine reporting in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, found surprising changes that threaten the sustainability of ocean ecosystem.

Effects of Ocean Warning and Stratification on Nutrient Depletion

According to Adam Martiny, professor of Earth system science and ecology & evolutionary biology, model studies have indicated that ocean warming leads to increased stratification, depleting nutrients in certain surface areas. While previous model have suggested a link between ocean temperatures and surface nutrients this study is the first to confirm the effects of climate change on nutrient cycles.

The Role of Phosphorus in Marine Food Webs

Under the leadership of graduate student Skylar Gerace, the team analyzed 50 years of ocean nutrient data from the Global Ocean Ship-based Hydrographic Investigations Program (GO-SHIP). Their research revealed a dramatic drop in phosphorus levels in Southern Hemisphere oceans, a nutrient critical for the health of marine food webs.

Cascading Effects of Phosphorus Decline on the Marine Food Web

Gerace explained that the decline in phosphorus can have cascading effects up the marine food web, as plankton—key microorganisms that form the foundation of these webs—depend on phosphorus as a nutrient source. With less phosphorus available, phytoplankton become less nutritious, which in turn affects the growth rates of zooplankton and fish.

Nitrate Levels and Their Role in Marine Ecosystem Stability

Surprisingly, the nitrate concentrations—previously expected to decrease—have remained constant. Martiny noted that this is a positive development for ecosystem stability given nitrate's importance. Nonetheless, he mentioned that future declines in nitrate levels cannot be ruled out though any such predictions are purely speculative.

The Role of GO-SHIP in Verifying Climate Predictions

Martiny highlighted the necessity of programs such as GO-SHIP for this kind of scientific research. Without seafaring missions that gather firsthand data on marine ecosystem there would be no way to determine if the predictions made by climate models are true. For example, although models have forecasted a reduction in nitrate levels in ocean waters observations indicate that this has not transpired.

Demonstrating Long-Term Impacts of Climate Change on Ocean Chemistry

Martiny explained that showing long-term climate impacts on the ocean is challenging due to the significant variability involved, adding that their study is one of the few to demonstrate such impacts. "There are only a handful of studies that have been able to show long-term trends in ocean chemistry," he said.

Future Research Goals: Understanding Changing Nutrient Cycles Across Hemispheres

The team's next objective is to quantify the effects of changing nutrient cycles on marine ecosystems in both hemispheres as the impacts of climate change unfold.

Establishing a Holistic Indicator for Marine Ecosystem Health

Gerace stated that their investigation will focus on how this nutrient metric is related to broader ocean ecosystem dynamics, such as primary productivity. "Such work could solidify our measurements as a holistic indicator for tracking the health of marine ecosystems as the ocean warms and stratifies," he said.

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